Two weeks ago ECRI's Lak­sh­man Achuthan told NPR he would be able to make a defin­i­tive call on if we face reces­sion within 75 days.  It didn't take that long.  ECRI's indi­ca­tors now point to reces­sion, per a CNBC inter­view this morn­ing.  Clients were actu­ally told last week, but this is their first pub­lic acknowl­edge­ment.  This would con­firm what cop­per has been 'telling' us.  Based on their track record, it's essen­tially now in the bag.  Or what gov­ern­ment sta­tis­tics (always biased to sunny side up due to 'sta­tis­ti­cal adjust­ments' over the past few decades) say.  As to depths of the reces­sion — he says it is too soon to say.

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